Lefty Links Blog

Well, here I am blogging about Justin Timberlake, but it’s not what you think. This week, the former Mouseketeer who apparently brought sexy back is hosting the Las Vegas tournament that has changed names eight times since 1983–and this year, for the first time, we have the mouthful that is the “Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital for Children Open.” Well, maybe mentioning Justin Timberlake in my blog will increase my Google traffic. Justin Timberlake. Justin Timberlake.

On to the golf. It’s a solid field, by Fall Series standards, with some top names. Makes for some interesting and tough choices this week. Here we go, my 10 players to watch this week in the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital for Children Open:

Stephen Ames: True, he has no track record at this event, but he’s a world-class player, and he’s playing well right now, with a T5 and T6 in his last two events. His last round, on Sunday in Texas, was a 62.

Ben Crane: His pace of play is annoying, but he’s still a smart pick this week. He plays well here: T2 ‘06, T16 ‘05, T15 ‘04, T19 ‘02. He’s coming off a disqualification in Texas for an incorrect scorecard, so he should be eager to play.

Jason Gore: Playing well now, with a T8 and T19 in his last three starts. He finished T7 here in ‘07, and also has a T18 in ‘01.

Tim Herron: I hesitate to pick Lumpy in the heat, but he did finish T14 here in ‘07. He also has two top-10s in his last four events, and all four rounds in last week’s event in Texas were in the 60’s.

Charles Howell III: He’s still inconsistent this year, but his game continues to come around. He had a promising T3 a few weeks back, and he also has success at this event: 5th in ‘05, T18 ‘03, T6 ‘02, T20 ‘01.

Jeff Overton: Finished T19 here in ‘07, but more importantly, he’s playing great right now, with a T10 and 5th in his last two events.

Pat Perez: No track record here, but T21, T10, T8 in his last three events.

Bo Van Pelt: He’s been playing steady, (but not spectacular) golf lately, making his last six cuts in a row. He’s on my list because of his recent success here in Vegas: T5 ‘07, T11 ‘06, T16 ‘05.

Charlie Wi: Three top-10s in his last 8, including a T2 last week. Hopefully he’ll continue to ride that wave of good play.

Mark Wilson: He’s quietly playing excellent golf right now: 14 of last 15 cuts made, including last 10 in a row; three top-10s in last 6. And he plays great here in Vegas: T10 ‘07, T16 ‘06, T15 ‘04, T18 ‘03.

Lefty Watch: Three lefties in the field this week: Steve Flesch, Mike Weir, Tim Wilkinson. All interesting to watch this week–Flesch is due to play well, Weir is one of the headliners in the field, and Wilkinson is coming off a T2 last week.

Well, if I’m scoring myself on how many of my picks made the cut, I’m 9 of 10, which is pretty good. But, other than that, it wasn’t a great week for me:

Justin Leonard: T11
David Toms: T36
Chad Campbell: T36
Chez Reavie: T36
Charles Howell III: T36
Dean Wilson: T44
J.J. Henry: T58
Vaughn Taylor: T58
Charley Hoffman: T70
Davis Love III: missed cut

Lefty Watch: Tim Wilkinson had a fantastic week, with a T2. O’Hern was good, but not great, at T36, and Axley missed the cut by a mile.

Next up, the Justin Timberlake Shriners Hospital for Children Open. Back soon with my thoughts.

We’re in Texas this week, at the Valero Texas Open. It’s a 6,896-yard par 70, ranked 39 out of 55 in difficulty on the Tour last year, so expect some low numbers this week. The course record is 60, set by Bart Bryant in 2004, so hey, maybe even a 59 isn’t out of the question this week, if the weather cooperates.

Let’s jump right in to my list of 10 players to watch this week:

Chad Campbell: A Texan, and this event is kind to Texans. He has a T15 here in ’07, T19 in ’05, and a T17 in ’03, and his solid play in the Ryder Cup should still be boosting his confidence.

J. J. Henry: An excellent track record on this course: T6 ’07, T5 ’05, T5 ’04, T2 ’01. He’s also coming off a good T19 at Turning Stone last week.

Charley Hoffman: While his play has been mediocre lately, he has made 11 out his last 12 cuts. More importantly, he has good recent results at this event: T11 in ’07, T8 in ’06.

Charles Howell III: A talented player who has been having a substandard season, he’s showing signs of life with last week’s T3 at Turning Stone.

Justin Leonard: The favorite this week. Leonard, a Texan, owns this event: three-time winner (’07, ’01, ’00), twice runner-up (’98, ’95), and a T10 in ’04. He’s also playing excellent golf now, with a T7, T7, T17, T10 in his last four starts (not counting the Ryder Cup).

Davis Love III: Yet another Texan. The veteran may finally be getting back to form, given last week’s T3 at Turning Stone. He’s motivated to prove he can still play.

Chez Reavie: A good course-type for the short hitting, accurate, excellent-wedge playing Reavie.

Vaughn Taylor: A T22 here in ’04—but more importantly, he’s coming off a good T15 last week, and he’s on the bubble, currently sitting at 132 on the money list. He certainly has better skills than 132nd.

David Toms: Last event, the Viking Classic, was an encouraging T8. Another veteran playing below his standard, who should be motivated.

Dean Wilson: His recent play has been good but not great, but take a look at Wilson’s track record here at the Valero Texas Open: T6 ’07, T2 ’06, T7 ’05, T3 ’04. Hard to argue against that.

Lefty Watch: Only three lefties in the field this week: Eric Axley, Nick O’Hern, and Tim Wilkinson. Watch out for O’Hern, who is coming off a T10 last week.

If you haven’t already, you might want to take a look at this pdf, which shows the top 25 for the Valero Texas Open from 2000-2007, and tallies the players who have appeared in the top 25 the most times.

My picks will be coming on Tuesday…in the meantime, if you want to look at some stats and find some gems on your own…this pdf shows the top 25 for the Valero Texas Open from 2000-2007, and tallies the players who have appeared in the top 25 the most times. (Would you believe, for example, that Bob Estes has been in the top 25 five times in the last eight years?)

A few top tens for me this week, but not anything to write home about…(or blog about, but oh well)…

Allenby: 2nd
O’Hern: T10
Baird: T36
Marino: T36
Pettersson: T55
Adamonis: T68
Slocum: MDF
Gore: MC
Rollins: MC
Streelman: MC

Lefty Watch: O’Hern was top lefty, as I predicted, at T10. Wilkinson finished a respectable T36, Flesch T61, and Axley missed the cut.

Next up, the Valero Texas Open. The field’s a bit stronger, so it should make for some interesting picking.

It’s a crazy week in the office—so this just be a quick and dirty job for my Turning Stone Resort Championship (at the Atunyote Golf Club) predictions. Not much track record to work with, since the event was launched last year. We can also look at the ’06 B.C. Open, which was played at Atunyote Golf Club.

Here we go, jumping right in, my 10 players to watch this week:

Brad Adamonis: A P2 a few months ago at the John Deere, and coming off a T25 at the Viking. Just got a feeling about him this week.

Robert Allenby: One of the obvious favorites this week. Seven top 10s, 15 top 25s this year, and coming off a 16th at the Tour Championship.

Briny Baird: We all know about the year Briny is having. Gotta pick him in this mediocre field. T18 at this event last year.

Jason Gore: Two T8s in his last four starts.

Steve Marino: Five top 10s this year, including a 2nd & a 3rd—this could be his week to break through.

Nick O’Hern: Three top 10s this year, including a 3rd at the tough AT&T National. Inconsistent, but with potential.

Carl Pettersson: Another favorite this week. T5 at this event in ’07. This year he has a win, 5 top 10s, and 13 top 25s, and he’s missed only four cuts. Finished T5 here in ’07.

John Rollins: T18 here in ’07, and won the B.C. Open in ’06 (played at Atunyote). Finished T2 at the Legends-Reno Tahoe Open in August—he can be dangerous when playing well.

Heath Slocum: Five top10s this year, and only four missed cuts. Had a T15 recently at the Deutsche.

Kevin Streelman: His last four events include a T6, T4, and T22.

Lefty Watch: Four lefties in the field this week: Eric Axley, Steve Flesch, Nick O’Hern, and Tim Wilkinson. Flesch is the defending champion, but I’m guessing O’Hern will be the top southpaw this week.

Big winner this week - Camilo Villegas, who with his second win of the Playoffs has busted out in a big way. Big loser? The FedEx Cup Playoffs itself, which saw Singh collect $10 million just for showing up and walking 18 holes four days in a row. Thrilling.

Well, the tournament itself, playoffs aside, was a good battle. Here’s how my picks fared (keeping in mind, of course, that it was only a 30-man field):

Sergio Garcia: 2nd (lost in playoff to Villegas)
Anthony Kim: T3
Ernie Els: T6
Hunter Mahan: T17
Vijay Singh: T22 (give that man $10 million!)

Lefty Watch: Three lefties this week: Phil Mickelson finished T3, Mike Weir T6, and Bubba Watson last at 30.

Next up, we’re back into the Fall Series with the Turning Stone Resort Championship. Don’t expect too many big name players to be around in the next five weeks–it’s time for the lesser-knowns to hustle for their Tour cards. Actually, for golf geeks like me, I think it actually makes for some interesting predicting. Stay tuned for my picks, probably coming a day late this week, on Wednesday.

This week, we’ve got the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Not much drama expected, unfortunately, since all Vijay Singh has to do is show up and play 72 holes and sign a correct scorecard, and he’s handed $10 million. Loyal Lefty Links readers (are you out there?!) know that I’m not a huge fan of the Playoffs, and would like to see the Tour Championship be a match play tournament, with just the top 16 FedEx Cup players invited in. Once in and seeded, then the FedEx points are dropped, and it’s winner take all for the obscene paycheck. That would guarantee excitement, every year. Well, I’m sure the PGA Tour commissioner is reading this and taking notes, so we’ll see how quickly he implements my suggestions…

So who’s going to win this week? Hell, I’m not feeling very confident with predictions. But, that’s what I do, so here it goes…First, a bit of course track record. In the last six years, East Lake has hosted the Tour Championship five times (’07, ’06, ’05, ’04, ’02). For what it’s worth, in those five years, there have only been three players in the current field who have more than one top-10: Vijay Singh has five, Ernie Els has three, and Stuart Appleby has two.

With that in mind, here are my five players to watch this week at the Tour Championship:

Ernie Els: I like his play here at East Lake: T10 ’06, T10 ’04, T9 ’02. He’s got the even-year thing going on, and it’s ’08, right?

Sergio Garcia: This could go either way. You never know which Sergio is going to show up, and after his devastating defeat at the Ryder, he could either mail it in this week or be inspired to bounce back. I’m hoping for inspired.

Anthony Kim: His already sky-high confidence should be stratospheric now after his excellent showing at the Ryder Cup.

Hunter Mahan: A mediocre year for Mahan could be turned around big time with a strong finish this week. His strong play at the Ryder should be a huge momentum builder for him.

Vijay Singh: True, he doesn’t need to play well this week, but look at his record on this course: T7 ’07, T8 ’06, T4 ’05, 9th ’04, 1st ’02. And he’ll want to win the Cup in style.

Lefty Watch: Three lefties in the field this week: Phil Mickelson, Bubba Watson, and Mike Weir. I’m thinking Weir might be the best of the bunch this week, but that’s just a hunch.

A mediocre week for Lefty Links at the Viking Classic. Gay was a nice call, with a T2, but most of my longshots crapped out. Here’s the rundown:

Brian Gay: T2
Rory Sabbatini: T14
Bo Van Pelt: T22
Charles Howell III: T45
Vaughn Taylor: T45
Heath Slocum: T56
Tim Wilkinson: MC
Kent Jones: MC
Joe Durant: MC
Glen Day: MC

Lefty Watch: Not much to write home about for the lefties this week. Wilkinson missed the cut, and Axley finished T56.

Next up, the Tour Championship. The big drama, of course, is whether Vijay Singh can play 72 holes. Doesn’t matter what he shoots–as long as he finishes all 72, and signs a proper scorecard, he’ll be handed $10 million.

Here’s how I think the Playoffs can be improved: Keep the four rounds, and the ranking system. But in the final round, the Championship, only the top 16 get in, and it’s a four-day match play tournament. So 16 plays 1, 15 plays 2, etc. After Thursday, 8 are left, after Friday, 4, after Saturday, 2, and on Sunday, you’ve got two players, head to head match play, for $10 million. That would certainly be better than this anticlimactic letdown we’re getting this week.

With the eyes of the golfing world on the Ryder Cup this week, I’m going to be a bit of a contrarian and focus on the Viking Classic. Call me a golf geek, but I think it’s more interesting to pick from among the lesser-knowns, especially when they’re starting to get nervous about their place on the money list (and therefore whether they’ll have to go back to Q-school.

While most of the big names and hot players are either in the Ryder Cup or taking a week off, the tournament has been at the Annandale Golf Club in Mississippi for a number of years, so we’ve got good track record performance to look at. There are a few “cream of the crop” picks I couldn’t avoid, but I’ve also mixed in some hopefully more surprising picks as well:

Briny Baird: withdrawn from the field. I’ll replace him with Sabbatini. See below.

Glen Day: This one’s an interesting sleeper. Day has done very little this year; just one top 10 and 4 top 25s. But he loves this track; it’s been the bright spot in his poor seasons for four recent years: T5 ’06, T17 ’05, T3 ’04, T7 ’03.

Joe Durant: Another guy with just one top 10 and 4 top 25s this year. But again, he likes this course: T17 ’07, 2nd ’06, T14 ’02. And he’s 140th on the money list, which could lend a sense of immediacy to his game.

Brian Gay: One of the quality players this week. Coming off a T13 at the BMW. He has one win and four top 10s this year, and he has a bit of success on this course—a T11 in ’02.

Charles Howell III: A talented player having a terrible year (just two top 10s, and eight missed cuts); he’s got to be feeling like it’s now or never to turn it around.

Kent Jones: He has three top 25s in his last four starts, and he enjoys success on this course: T8 in ’07, T13 in ’03. Watch out for the funny-looking guy this week.

Rory Sabbatini: One of the bigger names in the field, Sabbatini started his year well with a 17th, 2nd, and T3 way back in January, but has been pretty much crap since. An easy tourney like this is a good chance for Sabbatini to start to turn things around and salvage his season.

Heath Slocum: One of the favorites. He’s having a solid year, with five top 10s and only four missed cuts, and he plays very well here: T13 ’07, winner ’05, 18th ’04.

Vaughn Taylor: Like Howell III, another talented player having a poor year—he also needs to turn it around. He does have two top 15s in his last five events, which is somewhat promising.

Bo Van Pelt: A relatively unexciting year, with four top 25s, and highlighted by a 2nd place in Puerto Rico. But you can’t ignore his track record here: T8 ’07, T5 ’06, T5 ’05.

Tim Wilkinson: The diminutive lefty rookie had a T6 and solo 3rd in March, but not done much since. He’s got to be feeling like it’s time to fight for his Tour card; he’s at an uncomfortable 130th on the money list right now.

Lefty Watch: A measly two lefties in the field this week: Eric Axley and Tim Wilkinson. I’ve already mentioned Wilkinson above–Axley is a great putter and might make noise.

Here’s something new this week–I’ll throw in a bit of my homework, for those of you wanting to check out some stats and make up your own minds. This pdf lists the top 25 in the tournament from ‘01 through ‘07, and pages 2-4 list how many times various golfers have landed in the top 25 in ‘01 through ‘07 (for example, Carl Pettersson has 3 top 25s).